Can Trump Be Reelected?

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Can Trump Be Reelected?

Silas Ou, Reporter

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With the presidential election starting on November 3rd the big question is can Trump win. His opponents in the Democratic include big names like Beto O’ Rourke (the almost Senator of Texas), Joe Biden (former Vice President of the U.S.), Bernie Sanders (the second most popular Democrat in 2016), and Pete Buttigieg ( a 37-year-old, openly gay, mayor of South Bend, Indiana). Additionally, Howard Schultz (the CEO of Starbucks) is planning to run as an independent party candidate. With such big names and competition, it seems Trump has an uphill battle. And according to FiveThirtyEight, he only has a 42.3% approval rating. But is that really the case?

According to CNBC, 70% of Wall Street, believes Trump will win the election. Not only this but Goldman Sachs (a famous investment banking company) believes Trump has a narrow advantage against the Democratic party. So what reasons do these Trump supporters have to support their case?

1. Historically Most Presidents are re-elected

Of the 43 U.S. presidents that have served, 32 have won re-election (or around 70%).

2. Controversial Presidents Typically win re-election

A key thing about this point is the difference between controversial, and downright bad. To start of an example of a bad president is Franklin Pierce. He didn’t do anything about the possibility of a Civil War, or the issue of slavery, despite his term ending in 1857. By the time James Buchanan replaced him it was too little too late. And by the time his term ended on March 4th South Carolina, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas had already seceded. Followed by Virginia on April 17th (which is the date of publication of this article). Anyways, a controversial president is like Lyndon B. Johnson. he was controversial because he continued involvement in the Vietnam war. Although today it seems very wrong to us, back then it was just a controversy. Many people didn’t really mind the Vietnam War until 1965. Four years after the U.S. started involvement in the war. And as we all know he won re-election.

A final example of a controversial president winning again is Barrack Obama. Who was blamed for the 2008 recession (which actually started in December 2007) and was responsible for the controversial Obama Care. Despite this, he still won re-election.

3. Presidents That Have Strong Economies During Their Term (even if they did/did not cause it) Win re-election

Trump has kept the economy very strong. Since the start of his term, the Dow Jones Index has climbed 6,000 points.  And presidents with strong economies in their terms win re-election. (Like FDR)

4. Presidents that have peace during their term get re-elected.

Since the Vietnam War, the public has always wanted to avoid foreign intervention in wars. This was illustrated in the Kent State University protests/shootings. Yet during Trump’s term, he has pulled troops out of the Middle East in ever-increasing numbers. This not only gives him the votes of veterans but families of those who would have had their son/daughter stay there longer.

At the same time, there are reasons Trump could lose.

1. If the Economy goes down in the remainder of his term he would lose a lot of support

There are signs the economy could go down. For example the fact, that Fed interest rates are at levels too low to imagine. So if a speculated economic crash occurs during Trump’s term, he is going to lose a lot of support. For example, the investors at Wall Street would lose faith in his “economic skill.” Everyone in the financial sector would hesitate to elect him. That includes bankers, stock traders, and accountants, etc.

2. If a Popular Conservative Third Party Candidate Runs the Trump Will Have His Vote Split

First of all the Libertarian party is a political party that claims to have the Conservative-ness of the GOP and the Liberalism of the Democratic Party. However, historically popular Libertarian Candidates split the vote among Republicans. (Keep in mind though that the Libertarian Party is a third party) Although the percentage is usually small, it nonetheless can make a difference. The same thing applies to left-leaning parties like the Green Party. And they’re many times when this has happened. For example, Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot surged to the top of the polls in 1992. By the end of the election, he had won 19 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Clinton and 37 percent for Bush. It is speculated that due to his rightist views like balanced federal and congressional term limits he split the vote among (George H.W. btw) Bush voters.

 

Final Note: Many of these reasons are speculation compiled from the world’s leading experts.  (Or will Kanye West Win?)